Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.044818 0.051217 0.058255 0.066582 0.076173 0.086889 0.099787
2024-12-22 0.034150 0.042601 0.052786 0.066005 0.082763 0.103376 0.130770
2024-12-29 0.029481 0.039037 0.051297 0.068258 0.091240 0.121480 0.164584
2025-01-05 0.024672 0.034250 0.047160 0.065957 0.092828 0.130164 0.186505
2025-01-12 0.021428 0.030976 0.044408 0.064846 0.095454 0.140057 0.210825
2025-01-19 0.018463 0.027648 0.041060 0.062275 0.095375 0.145684 0.229149
2025-01-26 0.017297 0.026785 0.041139 0.064698 0.102931 0.163446 0.268276
2025-02-02 0.016286 0.026012 0.041212 0.067034 0.110499 0.181954 0.310856
2025-02-09 0.015395 0.025306 0.041276 0.069291 0.118099 0.201258 0.357146
2025-02-16 0.014105 0.023798 0.039852 0.068851 0.120981 0.212753 0.390965
2025-02-23 0.013127 0.022703 0.038991 0.069245 0.125297 0.227136 0.431771
2025-03-02 0.012110 0.021436 0.037691 0.068689 0.127766 0.238338 0.467813
2025-03-09 0.011506 0.020865 0.037603 0.070412 0.134832 0.259241 0.526419
2025-03-16 0.010613 0.019680 0.036291 0.069696 0.137137 0.271264 0.568733
2025-03-23 0.010214 0.019377 0.036578 0.072086 0.145843 0.297022 0.643612
2025-03-30 0.009272 0.017940 0.034557 0.069649 0.144368 0.301599 0.672672
2025-04-06 0.008573 0.016911 0.033230 0.068472 0.145373 0.311468 0.714934
2025-04-13 0.007780 0.015621 0.031263 0.065749 0.142721 0.313031 0.737974
2025-04-20 0.007588 0.015541 0.031748 0.068315 0.152034 0.342379 0.831916
2025-04-27 0.007395 0.015439 0.032174 0.070789 0.161413 0.373000 0.933555
2025-05-04 0.007202 0.015319 0.032547 0.073181 0.170868 0.404944 1.043392
2025-05-11 0.006785 0.014672 0.031717 0.072714 0.173439 0.420505 1.112344
2025-05-18 0.006469 0.014223 0.031283 0.073132 0.178213 0.442105 1.200946